What the electric vehicle market in Italy will look like in 2030

Mobility travels toward electric

The electric car world is already experiencing its "future." The direction taken by private mobility is already going in the direction of more and more PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) or BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) vehicles on the road.

The types of electric vehicles

BEV

Battery Electric Vehicles

Refers to vehicles whose propulsion is tied exclusively to an electric motor and associated batteries. Their large-scale deployment will be increasingly linked to the availability of charging infrastructure.

PHEV

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vechicles

These are the hybrid vehicles equipped with two propulsion systems: gasoline/diesel engine and electric motor, and have an independent charging system for both systems. Thus, they are equipped with both a fuel tank and an outlet for electric charging.

HEV

Hybrid Electric Vechicles

These are the hybrid vehicles equipped with a gasoline/diesel engine and a supporting electric motor that is recharged solely by the movement of the vehicle or the heat engine. Therefore, these vehicles do not have an outlet for electric charging and their range in pure electric is extremely limited. For these reasons, they are not considered in the market shares mentioned here.

The 2030 scenario in Italy

In the report on electric mobility and related future scenarios prepared in 2020 by the Politecnico di Milano, the Italian market forecast to 2030 is outlined.

Within the current decade, one in seven cars will be electric. And by then new registrations of electric cars will be more than half of the total (55 percent).

%

One in seven cars

Will be an electric vehicle

%

More than half

Of the new registrations will be an electric vehicle

Millions

of electric vehicles on the road

Surrounding the deployment of electric vehicles through increased supply, increasingly competitive pricing and longer battery life must also develop an infrastructure ecosystem that can support the future of mobility as it unfolds.

New registrations

Infographic Percentage Matriculations Ev 2010 2030

PHEV and BEV vehicle diffusion relative to new registrations.

Vehicles on the road

Infographic Diffusion Ev 2010 2030 Circulating Vehicles

PHEV and BEV vehicle diffusion relative to new registrations.

Data source: "Smart Mobility Report 2020," Politecnico di Milano

Electric cars internationally

The first quarter of 2021 in Europe

Internationally, the weight of electrics in relation to total new vehicle registrations issurging ahead of market expectations.

This is confirmed by data provided by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), which reports in the first quarter of 2021 a decline in gasoline car registrations of 19.1 percent, and 23.4 percent for diesels, while alternative-fuel vehicles are growing by about 90 percent, accounting for more than one-third of the total new cars on the road.

Compared to the equivalent period in 2020, this has risen from just over 228,000 registered alternative-fuel vehicles to nearly 453,000.Italy garners 15.1 percent of the European total, just behind the United Kingdom and 8 percentage points behind leading Germany.

%

Registrations of new electric cars

compared with the same period in the previous year.

- %

Gasoline car registrations

compared with the same period in the previous year.

- %

Diesel car registrations

compared with the same period in the previous year.

Data source: European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA)

x

In two years

The share of PHEV and BEV electric vehicle registrations in Italy in the first half of 2021 is 11 times the same as the share in the first half of 2019.

+ %

PHEV and BEV electric vehicle registrations.

compared with the same period in the previous year.

%

PHEV and BEV electric vehicle registrations.

Of total new registrations.

Data source: JATO Dynamics and Motus-E

Electric cars and Italy

The first half of 2021 in Italy

The first months of 2021 have also recorded in Italy sales numbers of electric vehicles that are decidedly higher than expected and in line with what is happening internationally.

If in fact in 2020, despite the pandemic situation related to Covid-19, we saw a leap of +147% compared to the previous year, the registration figures for the January-June 2021 six-month period are even more staggering, with sales of PHEVs and BEVs reaching a total of 7.7% of the total, numerically represented by 68321 vehicles: a market share eleven times higher than two years ago.

At the same time, the number of electric car models on the market is growing exponentially: there are 88 according to the estimate made at the end of 2020, a growth of 42 percent compared to the previous year, when there were 62 models on the market.

Charging services:

more outreach is needed

Infrastructure sometimes panders, other times fosters change in certain sectors of the economy.

In the case of electric vehicles, the ability to easily recharge one's vehicle will further drive market growth and may generate a virtuous circle for users, service providers and automakers. Looking ahead, two different scenarios are envisioned for the near future.

2025

By 2025 we range between 36,000 charging points in a base scenario and 55,000 in an accelerated one.

2030

By 2030 the figures rise to 47,000 and 70,000, respectively. The greatest growth is imagined in the very first years of the current decade.

Data source: "Smart Mobility Report 2020," Politecnico di Milano

Charging infrastructure:

the photograph of Italy

Infrastructure

While as of December 2020, there were more than 19,300 charging points in about 9,700 infrastructures (source: report "Public charging infrastructures in Italy," by Motus-E), the situation as of June 30, 2021 in our country reports 23,275 charging points in 11,834 stations (or columns) and 9,453 publicly accessible locations.

Benchmark

Compared to the first quarter of the year, growth rates are up sharply, with an increase of 2,518 charging points (up 12 percent from +8 percent in January-March) and 1,303 infrastructures (with identical percentages of change). Charging stations are 80% on public land, while one-fifth of the total are on private land.

Distribution

In terms of macro-areas of distribution, 57 percent of the infrastructure is located in northern Italy, 23 percent in the center and the remaining 20 percent in the south and islands. The most virtuous region on this figure is Lombardy (18 percent) with 4,130 points, followed by Piedmont, Lazio and Emilia-Romagna with about 10 percent each.

Power

Nineteen percent of the distribution points are slow charging (power of 7 kW or less) and 77 percent are accelerated or fast AC charging (between 7.5 kW and 43 kW). A meager 5% provide DC fast charging (44 kW and above) and just 1% more high-power (greater than 100 kW).

Data source: Motus-E: market analysis June 2021

The future is electric

Mobility travels toward electric

The types of electric vehicles

BEV

PHEV

HEV

The 2030 scenario in Italy

Electric cars internationally

The first quarter of 2021 in Europe

Electric cars and Italy

The first half of 2021 in Italy

Charging services:

more outreach is needed

Charging infrastructure:

the photograph of Italy

What we can do together